Group A: African Cup of Nations Preview (Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Senegal, Zambia)

No introductions, you know what this is. The African Cup of Nations 2012, in all its resplendent glory. This will be the 28th edition of the Cup of Nations and the third covered on Just Football after 2008 and 2010. For a general 2012 tournament preview and background head here – I will be writing a regular column for FourFourTwo throughout the competition. Here I present to you Just Football’s previews:

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GROUP A

Equatorial Guinea – Libya – Senegal – Zambia

EQUATORIAL GUINEA

(a detailed look at the co-hosts is available here in a regular AFCON 2012 column I will be writing for FourFourTwo)

LIBYA

Against the backdrop of civil war and the overthrowing of Libyan leader Muammar Gadaffi after 42 years in power, Libya’s qualification for their third African Cup of Nations is both an extraordinary fairytale and, in a sense, simultaneously insignificant. At least 30,000 people were killed during the battles, including family members of some of the players in Libya’s squad, and with whole towns being burnt to the ground just a few short months ago it might appear at least a little churlish to some to be discussing who will play where for the country’s football team.

Nevertheless the beauty of football is the joy it can bring, and making it to Gabon and Equatorial Guinea against all odds can be seen as a huge source of pride and an inspirational achievement for a slowly rebuilding nation. Rarely can a qualifying campaign have been as fraught; the Mediterranean Knights had to cope with revolution, angst, anguish, physical weakness caused by Ramadan fasting during their 0-0 draw in Mozambique, the death of their popular team doctor from a heart attack the night before the Zambia game, player absences deriving from the conflict and the suspension of their domestic league. Two of their three scheduled home games also had to be played outside the country in Bamako, Mali and Cairo, Egypt.

Having overcome such varied hardships Libya may well feel they can achieve anything, and while difficult, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that they could qualify from Group A. An opening day result over the hosts will be crucial but Libya took 4 points from Zambia without conceding in qualifying, so hope springs eternal. Senegal in their final game will prove more difficult.

A penny-pinching defence that includes Samir Aboud (Al Ittihad) veteran keeper who was often heroic in qualifying and a shrewd, not to mention intensely committed, coach are key factors in getting Libya this far. If Brazilian Marcos Paqueta can maintain both defensive solidity and team unity, under the colours of a new flag, then Libya may well surprise people. Goalscoring is a worry though with just six scored in qualifying – the joint lowest of any side that made it to the tournament.

SENEGAL

Third favourites according to the bookmakers, Senegal’s sheer firepower upfront has to make them serious contenders for what would be a first ever African Cup of Nations crown. Sow-Niang, Sow-Niang-Cisse, Sow-Niang-Diouf-Cisse and NDoye-Cisse are just some of the forward combinations used by coach Amara Traore during qualifying – and that’s without even mentioning the Premier League’s second top scorer Demba Ba (Newcastle United). The variety in attack possessed by the Teranga Lions is truly frightening.

One of only three African nations to ever reach the quarter finals of a World Cup, what once looked a rich future for the West Africans has since become a forlorn tale of promise unfulfilled, with failure to qualify for the 2010 Cup of Nations behind even Gambia in their group indicative of a stark demise.

Traore was part of that 2002 Senegal squad in Japan/South Korea, a veteran attacker in the twilight of his career at Guegnon, and the stability he has brought to today’s exciting group of players via two years in charge of the national team (a veritable lifetime in Africa) has proved rewarding. Senegal conceded just two goals in qualifying and cruised through a group that included the mighty Cameroon. Ba, flavour of the month in England but a player that rarely made the starting lineup in qualifying, puts the team’s recent success down to the friendship and ‘love’ that has unified a close group.

Mamadou Niang (Al Sadd), Papiss Demba Cisse (Newcastle United), Moussa Sow (Lille) and Ba have all been prolific in recent seasons and goals should be forthcoming against the likes of Libya and Equatorial Guinea. In defence Kader Mangane (Rennes) – who spoke to Just Football not long ago – and Souleymane Diawara (Olympique Marseille) provide stability allowing Cheikh M’Bengue (Toulouse) and Ludovic Sane, in wonderful form at Bordeaux this season, to push forward. The semi finals is the minimum target for the Teranga Lions. Given their ability in all departments anything less would be disappointing.

ZAMBIA

Consistently one of the most entertaining sides to watch at recent African Cup of Nations, Zambia head to Equatorial Guinea/Gabon with lofty ambitions sparked by the return of influential coach Herve Renard. Renard guided the Chipolopolo (still the best nickname in world football) as far as the quarter finals in 2010 where Zambia were desperately unlucky not to go further, losing on penalties to a lead-footed Nigeria side they outplayed for large spells.

Zambia’s vibrancy, energy and spirit have proved hugely endearing to neutrals in recent tournaments, but Italian coach Dario Bonetti also instilled tactical discipline to their game during his time in charge. It was strange therefore to see him sacked almost as soon as qualification was secured, on the back of defeat to Libya. Renard, who straddled the touchline in Angola with all the reserved cool of a Calvin Klein model, left the Copper Bullets to take up an ultimately fruitless post with Angola.

Renard has talked up the possibility that Zambia could stun the continent and go all the way in 2012, and with two more years of experience under the belts of what was a fairly naïve squad in Angola, they could well surprise people. The absence of talisman Jacob Mulenga (FC Utrecht) through injury is a huge blow but the Katongo brothers Felix and Christopher are available as well as Isaac Chansa (Orlando Pirates), Collins Mbesuma (Golden Arrows) and the highly-rated 21-year-old Emmanuel Mayuka (Young Boys Bern). Teenager Evans Kangwa (Nkana) is another to look out for, top scorer in the regional Cosafa under-20 tournament in December.

Zambia conceded just two goals in qualifying but failed to beat Libya, opponents on matchday 2 here, home or away. Given they start with a tricky game against Senegal, they will surely need to rectify that if the Chipolopolo are to advance to the last eight.

Prediction: Zambia vs Libya on matchday 2 is the key game in this group I feel. Senegal should sweep through their opponents fairly comfortably leaving the rest to fight it out for second place – and a possible tie with Cote d’Ivoire. Zambia’s natural ability could prove too much for Libya’s immense spirit here. Senegal and Zambia to advance.

African Cup of Nations 2012, African Football, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Senegal, Zambia