Meet The Minnows: A statistical analysis of Europe’s Whipping Boys

Okay so they’re bad, but just how bad? Making his debut for Just Football here’s Jake Miller with a statistical analysis of UEFA’s minnows.

During the last round of qualifiers for next summer’s European Championships in Poland and Ukraine, the world’s number one ranked team, Holland stuffed perennial losers San Marino 11-0. Whilst the gap between the two international sides obviously couldn’t be much bigger, it does pose a bigger question – why do they bother?

This article will be a review of some basic statistical analysis that I have completed on the matter. I have collated data from the last 4 campaigns (qualification for the World Cups in 2006 and 2010 as well as the European Championship qualification groups from 2008 and this current round, for Euro 2012).

For the purposes of this analysis, I have defined a minnow as any teams that were ranked in the bottom group in the creation of the seeds. Rules differ year by year, but there are a total of 11 different teams who have made up these minnows, with 5 teams being ever-present throughout the whole time reviewed.

The review will be in two parts, firstly, a look at all 11 teams who have played in qualification and then a more in depth look at the consistently poor performing sides.

Analysis 1 – How do bottom seeds perform in qualification for major tournaments?

In the 4 campaigns analysed the 11 teams were Andorra, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Montenegro and San Marino. Between them, these teams played 314 games.

Using the above figures, the win percentage managed by these teams was 5.41%. These teams lose 82.48% of their matches.

Some more analysis shows that these minnows average this as a campaign:

Analysis 2 – How have Europe’s worst teams performed?

Whilst the above statistics are hardly glowing, it is worth noting that the data can be skewed by teams temporarily ranked as bottom seeds. For example, Montenegro were seeded in the bottom pot for the 2010 World Cup as they were a new nation, and they far outperformed the expected results for a bottom seed.

To assess the performances of Europe’s minnows conclusively, we need to look at the teams who were consistently ranked as a bottom seed. There are five teams that have managed this feat and below are their complete records.

The above shows how poor the record of the worst teams in Europe is in competitive fixtures. None of these teams came anywhere other than bottom of their group in the 4 campaigns analysed and the worst performing team, San Marino, didn’t collect a point (their average score line is close to 0-5).

Cliff notes:

* The 5 teams concede over 10 goals for every one scored;

* The average result is a 3-0 defeat;

* These teams lose 89.4% of their qualifying matches.

The average campaign for one of these teams is below.

Whilst proving that San Marino and Malta lose a lot is hardly ground-breaking, the magnitude of their awfulness is quite shocking. It poses questions about why these teams are regularly pitted against the Europe’s elite when they are getting thrashed on a regular basis.

My suggestion is relatively simple. 53 European teams will enter qualification for the 2014 World Cup, with 13 reaching the finals. I’m proposing a qualification process for Europe’s worst 12 teams, with four teams qualifying for the qualification proper. It would be a 2 group format with the top two teams from each group moving on. This would allow for 9 groups of 5, with the group winners and best runner up qualifying, with the other 8 runners up playing in 4 play-off games to take the last four spots.

This format would allow some of the lesser teams in UEFA to play genuinely competitive games against teams of a similar standard (and could be held in the off-season whilst a major tournament is being held). It would also remove some of the dead rubbers that occur in international football and make qualification tournaments reasonably arduous.

Some will complain that the smaller nations will be deprived of the big money spinning games, and whilst this is true to an extent, it is worth mentioning that Andorra could only manage a paltry crowd of 250 against Russia, the world’s number 13 ranked side.

It’s obviously going to be difficult to implement such a huge change, but with growing numbers of fans becoming disillusioned with the international game, perhaps a reform is needed.

Jake Miller is a new columnist for Just Football and can also be found over at Playing the Percentages.

Euro 2012, Faroe Islands, Luxembourg, Malta, Montenegro, San Marino, UEFA