Weekend Betting – Chelsea, Man City at bigger odds than you would imagine

20 Aug, 2011 Rob Hartnett Europe, Features

Arsenal Vs Liverpool Saturday 1245 Sky Sports

Arsenal and Liverpool began the season with draws they could have no complaint about. They have shared the spoils ten times in their last 23 meetings including six of the last eight. Both would have hoped for more from last weekend and will be wary of falling a possible five points behind the pace so early. Arsenal’s home bias is countered by their injury list and a focua on the Champions’ League.

Bet: Arsenal and Liverpool to draw @3.25

Aston Villa Vs Blackburn Saturday 1500

Between them these sides mustered three shots on target on the opening weekend. Villa’s task was harder though and having already tipped Blackburn for relegation I was not surprised to see them allow Wolves come from behind to win for the first time on over a year. The last five meetings at Villa Park have all gone to Villa by an aggregate of 11 goals. Rather than take 1.75 about the home win I prefer giving up one goal in the Asian Handicap. The odds are 2.35 Villa to win by more than one with your stake back if victory is by the minimum margin.

Derby Vs Doncaster, Saturday 1500

Reading match reports can be a stab in the dark without knowing the bias or otherwise of the reporter but those I

have seen of Derby County’s games this season suggest they are not quite as good as a 100 per cent start would suggest. Doncaster are still ravaged by injury but have been unlucky to go down to three narrow margin defeats against strong sides so far. The arrival of Chelsea’s Milan Lalkovic on loan gives them a boost and I believe they are good to take at least a point at Pride Park.

Bet: Doncaster (+0.5) Asian Handicap @ 2.15

Chelsea Vs West Brom, Saturday 1730 ESPN

Chelsea drew a blank at Stoke last week while West Brom will feel aggrieved to have lost to Man United despite conceding only one shot on target, the winner being an own goal. Last season this ended 6-0 to the Blues and while they should win at odds of 1.33, there is value in looking at a lesser margin. Eight of their 11 home wins against sides that were not relegated last season were by either 1-0 or 2-0. A combination of those same scores on Saturday can be backed at odds of 3.30.

Bet: Chelsea to win 1-0 or 2-0 @ 3.30

Norwich Vs Stoke, Sunday 1230

Stoke are doing well in Europe and secured a 1-0 win in the Swiss Alps on Thursday. They have only taken 2 points though from a possible 30 in their last ten away games in the Premier League, failing to score in seven of the last nine. With Chelsea and Europe occupying their minds they will not fully appreciate a quick turnaround for the early kick off on Sunday and Norwich will be pumped up for their home return to the top flight.

Bet: Norwich @ 2.50

Middlesborough Vs Birmingham, Sunday 1500

Middlesbrough have started well and Birmingham are taking time to adjust to life without some of their better players from last season. They also have to travel back from a Europa league tie on Thursday night and I expected Middlebrough to be shorter odds than this.

Bet: Middlesbrough to win @ 2.15

Bolton Vs Man City, Sunday 1600 Sky Sports

A top of the table clash in week two. Who could ask for more? City lost five of their last eight away in the Premier League last season but did manage to beat Bolton at the Reebok. They hit 15 shots on target against Swansea and looked very fluid up front and solid at the back. Six of their eight away wins last season were by two goals or more and they won 7 of 10 away at bottom half teams. Mancini’s caution is restricted to the bigger away games and 2.60 City to win by two or more with your stake back if they win by one is better value than 1.80 to win by any margin.

Bet: Man City (-1) Asian Handicap @2.60

You can see my briefer thoughts on the other five games in the Premier League, as well as correct score suggestions for all ten games here.