Reading v Swansea: Championship 2011 Playoff Final Preview

On Monday, Swansea City and Reading will compete in the Championship play-off final at Wembley Stadium for the right to play in the Premier League next season.  Both clubs have sold out their allocations for this match, which is worth tens of millions of pounds to the victor – the precise value tends to increase every time somebody reports it.

The Route to Wembley

Having appointed Brendan Rodgers as their new manager, Swansea’s enterprising style of football has seen them in the Championship play off spots since the 10th match of the season, and have spent 21 rounds of matches in the top three. Despite a wobble at the end of the season, Swansea managed to pull themselves above Cardiff and Reading. They have built on the excellent defensive foundations laid by previous manager Paulo Sousa, and have used their pacy wingers to counter attack at speed. They overcame Nottingham Forest in their semi-final, despite having defender Neil Taylor sent off in the opening moments of the first leg.

Reading have been one of the surprise success stories of the season. Their summer transfer activity was overwhelmingly in one direction, with £75,000 spent and outgoings of around £7.5m. With star player Gylfi Sigurdsson departing just as the season began, manager Brian McDermott spent the next month or so rebuilding his game plan. Their form suffered, and they were in mid-table when it finally clicked. The Royals’ form after the first third of the season saw them force their way into the play offs, to the surprise of most of their fans. They held Cardiff to a 0-0 draw at the Madejski Stadium, then, despite injury to crucial wingers Jimmy Kébé and Hal Robson-Kanu, defeated Cardiff 3-0.

The Players

Swansea’s success has largely been down to their outstanding defence, particularly full back Angel Rangel, a remnant of Roberto Martinez’s spell as manager that ignited Swansea’s ascent, and centre back Ashley Williams, widely regarded as the finest central defender in the league. However, considerable credit must also go to the attacking trio of Nathan Dyer, Scott Sinclair and Fabio Borini.

The explosive pace of wingers Dyer and Sinclair gives Swansea a dimension beyond simply keeping possession in their own half, and the arrival of Italian striker Borini on loan from Chelsea has given the Swans a goal threat they had been lacking for most of the season. Stephen Dobbie’s surprise emergence as a creative midfielder has also aided Swansea’s form, and Darren Pratley has proven in the past that he is capable of scoring goals from midfield. In goal, Dorus De Vries has been one of the hardest goalkeepers to score past in the Football League this season, though there are doubts as to whether this is down to his ability or Swansea’s defensive style.

The improvement in Reading’s form came with the arrival of Mikele Leigertwood from QPR on loan (which has since been made permanent). Leighertwood has been a crucial figure for the Royals, steeling up their midfield and boosting the performances of his partner, young Jem Karacan. Reading are one of the few Championship clubs with wingers as good as Swansea’s – Jimmy Kébé rightfully made Just-Football’s Championship team of the year, and whilst he is likely to miss the final through injury, both Jobi McAnuff and Hal Robson-Kanu will be dangerous.

In Shane Long, the Royals have a direct striker with tremendous work rate who will almost certainly be playing Premier League football next season, with Wolves a likely destination if Reading are not promoted. The Reading defence has been fairly tight, despite a collective lack of pace. Swansea’s front line will look to get in behind the likes of Ian Harte, Matt Mills and Andy Griffin. Harte was the only signing Reading paid a fee for this summer, and his set piece ability has resulted in him scoring 12 goals this season. In goal, it is likely Adam Federici will keep England u21 goalkeeper Alex McCarthy out.

The Managers

Swansea’ s Brendan Rodgers is actually a Reading fan, though he’ll be putting that allegiance aside for this match. After being forced to take a premature retirement from playing through injury, Rodgers forced his way up the ranks in Reading’s coaching system, before moving to Chelsea to manage their reserve side. At Chelsea, Rodgers learned from José Mourinho, and he consequently favours a 4-3-3 system similar to that employed by Mourinho at the start of his time at Stamford Bridge.

Rodgers was eventually offered the Watford job after the departure of Aidy Boothroyd, but jumped ship to manage Reading after a few months in the job. Taking the Reading job after Steve Coppell, who took the Royals to the Premiership for the first time in their 135 year history, was always going to be a poisoned chalice, but Rodgers did worse than expected. His negative, defensive tactics did not work, and he was sacked in December as the Royals languished in the relegation zone.

Rodgers spent the next six months on a sabbatical, reviewing the failings of his spell at Reading, and when Swansea offered him a postiion at the Liberty Stadium, he accepted. Rodgers’ style is still heavily possession based, but it is far less negative than at Reading. His defenders are not afraid to play a long pass for Dyer or Sinclair to run onto if need be.

The man who replaced Rodgers on both occasions when he left Reading was Brian McDermott. The two men are good friends, but their footballing philosophies are very different. McDermott, former manager of Woking and Slough and previously Reading’s chief scout and reserve team manager, encourages his side to play a more expansive passing game, and Reading fans have become accustomed to the sight of Matt Mills launching a long ball deep into opposition territory for Long and Kébé to chase. This style of play is much more physically demanding for the players, and they often give away possession unnecessarily, but combined with McDermott’s excellent man management style, it has led to the Royals arguably overachieving following Sigurdsson’s departure.

The Outcome?

In both matches this season, Swansea have beaten Reading 1-0 in narrow matches. However, it should be noted that Reading were missing Leigertwood for both matches. Still, Reading often struggle against teams who use three in midfield, and their lack of pace at the back could well be exposed by Swansea’s attack, especially Sinclair and Dyer.

Equally, Reading have a hard working front line who will pressure Swansea’s back four into playing long passes to their tiny attack with Mills should be able to deal with, and they have a pacy attack of their own. The crucial factor is likely to be Kébé’s fitness. The Malian winger is Reading’s man attacking threat, and is capable of carrying the ball from one penalty area to the other. Regardless, I think Swansea will have the better of this.

Head to head, Rodgers has defeated McDermott three times (1-0 on each occasion), with McDermott’s experienced Reading Reserves side beating Rodgers’s Chelsea Reserves 2-1 in the first of the four meetings.

Form

Swansea: WWWDW

Reading: LDWDW

Odds (from bet365.com)

Reading 7/4

Draw 11/5

Swansea 8/5

(Photo credit: sms467 on Flickr)

Brendan Rodgers, Brian McDermott, English Championship, Football League, Jimmy Kébé, Reading, Scott Sinclair, Swansea City