Weekend Six Pack – Day of the FA Cup Romantics

7 Jan, 2011 Rob Hartnett England, Europe, Fan Culture

Each week our betting columnist Rob Hartnett will bring you six bets from the weekend football action. Rob is the public face of leading In Play betting specialists 188BET.com and appears regularly on the Bolton, Wigan, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Everton websites doing betting previews. You can follow his thoughts on Twitter @HartnettRob

They say what you do on New Year’s Day will define what you do for the rest of the year. On that basis thank you Sunderland, West Ham and Watford for welcoming 2011 in such delightful fashion.

It’s the FA Cup 3^rd round this weekend, one of those days that was always magical in the old days and which still has the capacity to raise eyebrows, particularly if you were a Manchester United fan this weekend 12 months ago. Taking away from the romance, they were the only one of 14 Premier league teams to lose to ‘lesser’ opposition at first time of asking though Liverpool did join them after a replay. One of those two will fail to progress again this year though that game does not make it into this week’s Six Pack.

January 8^th and 9^th

Arsenal vs Leeds +3/3.5 goals at 2.07

We need four goals for a full profit but get half our stake back if there are three. I think Arsenal will win this and on that basis it is worth considering that the seven games Leeds have lost this season have produced 33 goals in total. Bit like Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid and just as much likelihood of their going down in a blaze of shots on target as well.

Millwall vs Birmingham Draw at 3.20

One of the games touted as a potential upset but Birmingham know how to eke out an away draw with five already this season. Millwall’s strength is in fast starts with half of their goals coming in the opening 30 minutes. Unfortunately that coincides with Birmingham’s strongest period when they have conceded only three all season. Deadlock beckons.

Everton (-1) Asian Handicap vs Scunthorpe at 2.13

In the second half of last season Everton won 11 of their 18 games in the League. Wednesday’s win over Spurs could kick start another surge and they should easily account for Scunthorpe whose home record reads one win, two draws and eight defeats. They have lost their last six by an average of 2 goals and that is what we need for a winner here. You get your stake back if Everton only win by one.

Blackburn to beat QPR at 2.00

QPR have other priorities and have not won an FA Cup game in ten years. Even in their unbeaten run of 19 in the Championship, they lost at home to Port Vale in the Carling Cup. Blackburn have won 12, drawn five and lost none of their home games against bottom half teams in the Premier League over last season and this. That is a fair record and makes even money look a big price.

Aston Villa to beat Sheffield United at 2.16

Villa’s drop into the bottom three has generated an overreaction from the odds makers. Yes their form is poor but the fixture list has not been kind. They have only played eight games against bottom half sides but have won five, drawn two and lost only one of those. The Blades have lost five of their last seven and are only one spot out of the Championship drop zone.

Hull and Wigan 0-1 Goals at 2.90

This same pairing produced a 4-1 win for Wigan at the DW Stadium in the third round last year. This time could be a lighter goal tally. Hull have only conceded six at home while Wigan have hit a mere eight on the road. It could be decided by a single strike though a 0-0 draw is not out of the question.

I would also fancy Southampton and Blackpool to draw, Newcastle and Man City to overcome (-1) Asian Handicaps and Chelsea to hammer Ipswich (with a 5 up score line good value at 10.0). As to Man United and Liverpool, United are deserving favourites and could make it look easy. That said Liverpool have won three of their last five meetings and outscored them 12-7. When they won 2-0 at Anfield 15 months ago it was off the back of four defeats while the 4-1 win at Old Trafford seven months before that was preceded by a 2-0 defeat at Middlesbrough. No science in it but nearly 6.00 about a shock may look big on Sunday night…

Tune into my twitter account @HartnettRob for tips on the Carling Cup semi finals and all the rest of the football action next week and if the FA Cup still doesn’t excite you try tuning into Sky Sports Soccer Saturday and betting In Play on 188bet.com on all the 3 o’clock kick offs. Good luck as always.