Weekend Six Pack IX – Bolton and Newcastle for starters, Lazio and Real for the main course

The Weekend Six Pack

Each week our betting columnist Rob Hartnett will bring you six bets from the weekend football action.  Rob is the public face of leading In Play betting specialists 188BET.com and appears regularly on the Bolton, Wigan, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Everton websites doing betting previews.  You can follow his thoughts on Twitter @HartnettRob

A few good weeks came to a crashing end last weekend when only my old pals Dortmund came up with the goods.  One thing about betting is that it will never let you get too comfortable.  I am a great believer though in putting in the work and getting your just rewards.  Every week won’t be a winner but over the long term…

Bolton to score first against Spurs @2.10

Spurs have not kept a domestic clean sheet since the opening day of the season and have conceded first in each of their last six Premier League games.  Without a win in ten away to Bolton, this is not the best venue for them to change a worrying habit.

Everton to beat Blackpool by 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 @2.55

When Blackpool have scored first they have won all four.  When they conceded first they have barnered one point from six games.  Everton have only conceded one goal in an unbeaten run of five.  An Everton win is 1.8 but 1-0 or 2-0 would have covered ten of their fifteen away wins over two and a bit seasons.  Add in 2-1 and you still get better than 6/4.  Also watch out In Play that Blackpool have conceded late in every home game this season.

Newcastle +1.5 goals in Handicap market Vs Arsenal @ 2.05

Why support a team that has been beaten soundly by the same opponents in recent weeks? Well first Arsenal have only covered this handicap twice in five games this season in the League at the Emirates and in none of the last three at home to West Brom, Birmingham and West Ham.  Add in that Newcastle have only been beaten by more than a single goal once, away to Man United in their opening fixture. That’s why.

Liverpool and Chelsea to be level at half time @ 2.05

Liverpool’s win over Napoli was their third in a row, the first such a sequence since September last year.  It was another strong second half, as is their habit this season and this is likely to be a cagey affair at the start, given that the sides have met 26 times in the last six seasons.  On balance Liverpool may be overpriced at odds of 3.75 but the draw at half time is a better bet in a fixture that has thrown uo two wins for either side and two draws in the last six.

Lazio to beat Roma @ 2.55

Only once in the last nine Rome derbies has the result finished up all square.  Victory means too much and with the pendulum having swung firmly in Lazio’s favour this season, odds of 2.55 are too big.  Roma are capable of good results but confidence is very fragile at the moment and with Muslera in sparkling form (one goal conceded in six games) they have it all to do to stay close.

Real Madrid -1.5/2 in Asian handicap vs Atletico Madrid @ 2.02

Real have only won the Madrid derby by more than a single goal once in the last nine clashes.  This is the kind of game and that is the kind of challenge that Mourinho will target though and his team will want to avoid any loss of momentum after needing a late equaliser against AC Milan on Wednesday.  Atletico have one away win in their last 13 away in La Liga and both Sevilla and Villareal have beaten them by two in the last two away fixtures.  The bet is a winner to have stake with a two goal win and to your full stake if real win by three or more.

Tune into my twitter account @HartnettRob for tips on next week’s full programme of Premier League games.

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