Weekend Six-Pack VIII; Goals at the Reebok, Dortmund to regain top spot

The Weekend Six Pack

Each week our betting columnist Rob Hartnett will bring you six bets from the weekend football action.  Rob is the public face of leading In Play betting specialists 188BET.com and appears regularly on the Bolton, Wigan, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Everton websites doing betting previews.  You can follow his thoughts on Twitter @HartnettRob

Last weekend produced another profit from the Six Pack with Chelsea on the mark winning 2-0, Villarreal keeping up their excellent home record at odds of 2.30, and West Ham and Newcastle making it 12 games in 14 that have gone over 2.5 goals at surprising odds against.  In midweek on Twitter we highlighted Wigan’s price as having gone far too big at 2.25 and so it proved.  We certainly won’t win with all our bets but we like to find value at odds against. So where do the opportunities lie this weekend?

Wigan to win or draw at Fulham @ 2.05

Four of the last six meetings have ended all square and the last ten meetings have only produced fourteen goals.  This may not be a thriller but with Fulham having won only three Premier league games in 20, and Wigan remaining a side capable of surprises, the Handicap bet just edges the draw as the best bet.

Chelsea to beat Blackburn 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 or 4-0 @ 2.35

Chelsea are 1.50 to win the game and Blackburn have only scored once in their last eight league meetings.  Combining 1-0 and 2-0 would give you odds of 3.50, but with Drogba scoring 5 in six games and Anelka 10 in 14 against Rovers, there is always the danger of more.  Best to add in the insurance of 3-0 and 4-0 for overall combined odds of 2.35.

Aston Villa to lead at Half Time vs Birmingham @ 2.45

Villa have won the last six meetings between the sides and while a new manager can make previous trends less relevant I was struck by the fact that Alex McLeish has lost his last seven local derbies while Gerard Houllier has won his last seven.  Rather than taking 1.85 about a Villa side that are unbeaten at home, go for the 2.45 about them leading at half time.  All bar two of their goals have come in the first 45 minutes.

Espanyol to beat Deportivo La Coruna @ 2.75

Espanyol have won their last three games, and their last three meetings with a Deportivo side that look poorly equipped for any rivals in La Liga, let alone one that lies only four points behind Barcelona in fifth place.  It may not be a high scoring game but with Depor only having scored three goals in eight it will not need to be.

Dortmund to beat Mainz @2.54

Dortmund have won ten of their last eleven away matches in all competitions and need to win here to regain top spot from surprise packages Mainz.  The leaders have lost two of their last three and may be starting to feel the pressure of their lofty position.

Bolton Vs Liverpool +2.5 Goals @ 2.20

Both sides have been involved in higher scoring games in five of their nine League matches so far this campaign and the same has been the case in five of their last seven meetings.  This looks a case where market sentiment has pushed the odds too far in what I think is the wrong direction.

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Other games of interest for the weekend, but which don’t make the six-pack include Everton who have conceded only one in four games and none in the last 15 minutes of matches against a Stoke side that have hit the net against every team bar Chelsea.  This looks tight but Everton can contain Stoke’s late surge and 1-0 or 2-0 looks the most likely outcome.

Man United still look shaky this season and Spurs fans will fancy their chances at odds of 5.80.  Bear in mind though that Spurs have failed to win away at United, Chelsea, Arsenal or Liverpool in the last 67 games, stretching back to 1993, and Gary Lineker scored the winning goal the last time Spurs won at Old Trafford.

Newcastle are a tough side to judge on early season form but Sunderland’s inability to win away and the fact that five of the last sixteen meetings have ended 1-1 might point towards a repeat.

Tune into my twitter account @HartnettRob for tips on Blackpool against West Brom on Monday and all the European action next week.

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