Weekend Six Pack, Week III – Betting Preview

Each week on Just Football our new betting columnist Rob Hartnett will bring you six bets from the weekend football action. Rob is the public face of leading In Play betting specialists 188BET.com and appears regularly on the Bolton, Wigan, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Everton websites doing betting previews. You can follow his thoughts on Twitter @HartnettRob.

Everything changes

There was carnage across the Carling Cup in midweek and it was not much better with our selections last week. All we needed was one more goal in the last 50 minutes at Chelsea for a 6.80 winner and one in the last 60 at Atletico Madrid to boost a half stake back return to a 2.07 winner. Close but no cigar. In midweek on Twitter (@HartnettRob) I highlighted Athletic Bilbao at even money to beat Mallorca which they did 3-0.

We’ll look to build on that then and score our first winning weekend with the following six pack and a long shot for those who like that sort of thing.

Man City Vs Chelsea +2.5 goals @2.00

Chelsea’s goal feast continued on Wednesday, even in defeat. Man City conceded four more than any other side in the top seven at home last season and face a defensive crisis. Tevez loves playing Chelsea having scored five in his last four games and this should produce a few goals for the early TV audience on Saturday.

Fulham and Everton to draw @ 3.35

Teams are moulded by their managers and Mark Hughes has now produced 12 draws in his last sixteen outings as a Premier League manager. Everton have failed to score six times in their last nine trips to Craven Cottage and in what looks likely to be a congested midfield battle this will be tight. Fulham have come from behind to save six points so far this season but will be short on firepower without Zamora and Dembele.

Wolves and Aston Villa +1 First half goals @ 2.15

The general view is that this could be a dour enough battle but it is likely that both sides will start brightly. Five of their combined six goals have come in the first half of games so far and while both midweek games involved second half comebacks, the seven goals they produced should set up a confident start. We win at these odds if there are two goals or more before the break and only lose if it is scoreless at half time, something that has yet to happen in their combined ten games this season.

Newcastle and Stoke to draw @ 3.40

Newcastle are difficult to pin down after 6-0 and 0-2 home games against Villa and Blackpool. They were strong last week against Everton and Stoke have won only six of the 40 away games they’ve played since returning to the top flight but this will be a tight game. Stoke have hit the woodwork six times already this season and have come on a lot since the Chelsea game. Matthew Etherington will give James perch another hard time and I think the spoils will be shared.

AC Milan (-1) Vs Genoa @ 2.26

Having opposed Milan against Lazio in midweek I watched the game and was very taken with the way in which Ibrahimovic performed. This team of talents was always going to take a while to settle but I sense that there will soon be a big result. Genoa have five points from their four games and could have beaten Fiorentina in midweek, but have lost four of their last five games away to Milan conceding 10 and scoring only 3. The odds on Milan winning by more than one should be shorter and we get our stake back if the margin is a single goal.

Borussia Dortmund to beat St Pauli @2.07

Dortmund are a team that thrives on confidence. This time last year they embarked on a run of nine wins and three draws. They are currently on a run of four wins having scored 12 goals in three games. St Pauli have enjoyed a fair start themselves but Dortmund can go top of the Bundesliga for the first time since 2002 with a win and are strong enough to be odds on for this.

Long shots:

I will generally look to put up odds against chances in the six pack but I know that some punters like nothing better than the small stake, big return bet. Each week I will try to put up at least one longer odds bet with a short explanation as to why they might be worth a dabble.

Newcastle / Draw double result @ 15.0

Stoke have conceded seven of eight goals in the first half and scored five of their seven after the Tony Pulis half time ‘chat’.

Bets Flutters Odds, Borussia Dortmund, Genoa, Newcastle United, St. Pauli, Weekend Six Pack