The Weekend Six Pack, week II – Betting Preview

Welcome back to the Weekend Six Pack. Each week on Just Football, our new betting columnist Rob Hartnett will bring you six bets from the weekend football action.  Rob is the public face of leading In Play betting specialists 188BET.com and appears regularly on the Bolton, Wigan, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Everton websites doing betting previews.  You can follow his thoughts on Twitter @HartnettRob. Here’s his latest six pack:

Everything changes

Last week saw some helter skelter action across Europe, and signs that while the big clubs do get bigger and stronger there is still hope for upsets.  Barcelona and AC Milan both lost to newly promoted sides.  Pause for thought for Chelsea fans this weekend, or perhaps not.

You are at the right place to keep up to speed on football from all around the world here at Just Football.

Closer to home Everton pulled off a great comeback to draw with Man United.  This of course was less of a surprise to those who had seen that Everton’s ability to score late goals has long been a huge benefit to them under David Moyes.  Stoke pulled off a similar late brace to defeat Aston Villa on Monday night, and our bet, having drifted to 21.0 In Play with 15 minutes to go.  Over the coming weeks we will look at the idea of hedging bets In Play to secure a profit.

We ended up slightly down on our first Weekend Six Pack despite the highlight of putting up Liverpool and Birmingham to draw at odds of 3.30 but if you follow my tips on Twitter @HartnettRob you will be comforted by the fact that we are up 90% on a total of nine winners from 17 bets in September so far.

On then to this week’s Six Pack…

This week’s Six Pack:

Stoke to beat West Ham @ 2.0

Stoke turned the corner last Monday under the fiery inspiration of Tony Pulis.  They have been strong against weaker opponents at home since their return to the Premier League, winning six of nine each year against bottom half sides.  West Ham are really struggling this year, having conceded three goals in each of their four games.  There were signs of hope against Chelsea but with Avram Grant missing from the sideline they could fall back again and Stoke really should be shorter odds than this.  If you are watching In Play think about taking a profit if Stoke are leading by one going into the last 15.  They were outscored 18-5 in the last quarter hour of games last season.

Everton to lead at Half Time Vs Newcastle @2.35

The Toffees are still looking for their first win but last weekend will have felt just as good and they can carry the confidence of their late show against Man United through to take an early lead against a Newcastle side who have lost five and drawn two of their last seven trips to Goodison.  Everton do tend to finish stronger as we highlighted last week but that is built in to the odds and having led at the break in 5 of their last 11 home games, the impetus from last week can be enough to keep the fans happy.

Sunderland Vs Arsenal -2.5 goals @2.07

My first thought on this was that Arsenal’s strength in front of goal and poor defensive record away from home would lead to goals.  Having watched the game on Wednesday though where they were flattered by the six goals but did look more settled defensively with the arrival of Squillaci, I have thought again.  Both sides will recognise the dangers posed by the opposition strike forces but that might lead to a tighter game than the odds suggest.  Under Steve Bruce Sunderland have been less about goals and more about structure.  It has served them well and three games this season have gone under 2.5 goals already.  The odds represent an over reaction to Arsenal’s recent goal bursts and we should look the other way.  The last five meetings between these two have produced a total of only six goals.

Liverpool to score first Vs Man United @ 2.70

Man United were shaken by Everton’s comeback last week and held by Rangers on Tuesday.  They have lost the same number of games as they have won (6) on their return from their last 16 European midweek games, a much worse record than any of their fellow ‘big clubs’.  In each of the last two seasons Liverpool themselves have caught them on a return from Euro action, 2-0 at Anfield last season and 4-1 at Old Trafford two seasons ago.  5.20 about Liverpool winning again is not bad value but the best bet for me is on their scoring first.  Last season they outscored opponents 16-6 in the opening half hour of games.  United’s comparable figures were 11-10 showing they are vulnerable.  With Joe Cole having taken only 27 seconds to score on Thursday night, Liverpool will come out with fire in their bellies.

Chelsea to beat Blackpool scoring at least five goals (5 Up at 188bet.com) @6.80

Blackpool will take heart from the victories of Hercules and Cesena last weekend as well as from their own bright start in the top flight.  I hoped at the start of the season they would survive and believe they have a good chance but this weekend will not be pleasant.  Chelsea have scored an average of over five goals per game in their last seven home fixtures.  In four of the last six they have breached the magic five goals for the purposes of this bet.  Blackpool’s six goal defeat at the Emirates mirrored that of Blackburn who Chelsea also beat at home by 5-0. This is a longer odds bet but given Chelsea’s current form it is worth taking the chance.

Atletico Madrid Vs Barcelona +3/3.5 Goals @2.06

La Liga is once again proving to be one of the most watchable and entertaining Leagues across Europe.  The early evening kick off on Sunday sees the Champions and the league leaders go head to head in what has proven down the years to be a goal feast.  In the last nine games there have been no fewer than 46 goals.  Atletico won this last year and are playing with real style again this season but did lose in midweek while Barcelona bounced back from defeat to Hercules with a 5-1 win in the Champions’ League. There is much at stake already for both sides who may well finish in the top three come May but for now the bet is to go for goals.  The Handicap goals market means we need four to win at these odds but we get back half our stake so long as there are three goals.

(Gamble responsibly people).

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