The Weekend Six Pack – Betting Preview

Introducing a new regular column on Just Football, the Weekend Six Pack. We’re delighted to welcome our new betting columnist Rob Hartnett, who each week will bring you six bets from the weekend’s football action.  Rob is the public face of leading In Play betting specialists 188BET.com and appears regularly on the Bolton, Wigan, Chelsea, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Everton websites doing betting previews. You can follow his thoughts on Twitter @HartnettRob:

Welcome back from the international break.

There were good starts for England and the two Ireland sides and a couple of betting opportunities that were of note.

England away to Switzerland was billed as a likely dour encounter but looking behind the headlines you would have found that in 17 of the last 20 away games exluding South Africa, England had been involved in games producing three goals or more.  That reveals much of the way that the side is set up away from the pressure of the biggest stage and odds of 2.25 about +2.5 goals were just too big.

The Republic of Ireland were 1.03 to defeat Andorra, but under Giovanni Trappatoni they had yet to beat any side in a competitive game by more than a single goal.  Andorra’s average defeat over 89 games was a surprisingly low 2.5 goals so when the Handicap line was pitched at 3.5 goals that was another bet worth playing.

Each week through the season we will look to unearth bets that stand out on the bigger games of the weekend and hopefully give you a better insight into the varied and exciting world that football betting has become.

This week’s Six Pack

Everton Vs Manchester United, +2.5 goals at odds of 2.06

United have only won 8 of their last 27 games away to sides that finished in the top half of the Premier League.  That makes odds on quotes of 1.90 unappealing.  Everton are better value to win or draw at odds of 2.05 but the best bet is on three goals or more at odds of 2.06.  Both sides recognise the value of three points and take risks, particularly at the end of games.  One third of their combined goals last season came in the last quarter hour.

United scored 34 goals away last season but conceded at least one to every top half side away from home except for Man City.  The 2-2 draw away to Fulham suggests not much has changed and a goal feast looks likely in the lunchtime kick–off.

Chelsea to beat West Ham 2-0 or 2-1 at combined odds of 3.75

The two sides are already at opposite poles of the league and a Chelsea win at odds of 1.30 is hard to get away from.  Even their winning at half time and full time only brings us to odds of 1.80 so instead it is worth looking at the combined correct scores of 2-0 and 2-1 at odds of 3.75.  This would have covered six of Chelsea’s ten away wins last season under Carlo Ancelotti and with a Champions’ League trip in midweek, they are unlikely to put the foot down on a poor Hammers side.

Wigan to beat Sunderland at odds of 2.50

The Latics have a great record against Sunderland, winning six of their last nine meetings and drawing two.  Last season they lost their two home games in August but came back from the international break with a 1-0 win at home that was the first in a run of three wins and two draws.  They will welcome Tom Cleverley  for his first game and he will have had more time to acclimatise to the team than Asamoah Gyan for Steve Bruce’s side.

Athletic Bilbao to beat Atletico Madrid at odds of 3.10

Madrid are a buzz team at the moment sitting atop La Liga after a 4-0 opening day hiding of Sporting Gijon and beating Inter Milan in the European Super Cup.  The odds against Athletic Bilbao are just too big though.  Madrid lost 11 of the 12 games away to the top sides in Spain last season while Bilbao beat Real Madrid and held Barcelona at the San Mamés Stadium.  They themselves started with a 3-0 away win over Hercules and will give Diego Forlan’s side a tough game.

Birmingham and Liverpool to draw at odds of 3.30

Both sides have seen plenty of changes of personnel since last season and may take time to settle after a busy transfer deadline rush.  Liverpool had more away on international duty so the Blues may have an edge in preparedness that is not fully reflected in the betting odds.  The two sides have drawn their last three encounters and Birmingham only lost twice at St Andrews all last season.  Tellingly from a tactical perspective they drew at home against Chelsea, Arsenal, Man United, Spurs, Man City and Liverpool and another stalemate is the most likely outcome.

Aston Villa to beat Stoke (Draw no bet) at odds of 2.10

Stoke City have only one win, against Hull, in their last eight home games at the Britannia Stadium.  Two seasons ago they managed four wins at home to top half sides.  Last year they managed none.  Villa on the other hand will be buoyed by the arrival of new manager Gerard Houllier and won 8 of their 14 games away to sides that finished below them last season.

The odds of 2.80 about a Villa win are tempting but with the new man at the helm and the significant late transfer activity by Tony Pulis it is best to take the insurance of our stake back in the event of a draw.

(Ed – remember folks, gamble responsibly!)

(pic via madasie on Flickr)

Bets Flutters Odds, Birmingham City, Chelsea, English Premier League, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United, Spanish Primera Division, Sunderland, Weekend Six Pack, West Ham United, Wigan Athletic