Argentina v Germany – Match Preview

When attempting to predict the winner of Saturday’s quarter final between Argentina and Germany two key questions come to mind;

1. How good is Argentina’s defence? &

2. Just how good is Mesut Oezil?

These two issues are of course intertwined and are likely to be the decisive factors in determining which team will advance to the semi final in Durban next Wednesday.

Argentina have probably been the most exciting team to watch at the World Cup so far. They have scored more goals than anyone else – 10 so far – and had the greatest number of shots and shots on target of all the competing teams. They have arguably the best attackers in the tournament, with Higuain joint top scorer with four goals, Tevez scoring twice against Mexico and Messi being outstanding throughout – despite not scoring a goal as of yet.

It is at the other end of the pitch where the questions remain over Maradona’s team. Walter Samuel had a magnificent season at Inter Milan – winning the treble – but is an injury doubt having missed the previous game. His replacement at centre back will be Nicolas Burdisso, who will be partnered by Martin Demichellis. The Bayern Munich defender will come up against a number of his team-mates at club level, in particular Miroslav Klose. Demichellis has been unconvincing so far in the tournament and will have to raise his game to cope with Germany’s attacking threat.

Maradona’s biggest selection dilemma is at right back. Jonas Gutierrez began the World Cup as first choice in this position but played poorly in the opening two games and subsequently lost his place in the team to Nicolas Otamendi. It is not unconceivable that Jonas could regain his place at right back but it is more likely that Otamendi will continue in the starting eleven.

Gabriel Heinze will play at left back despite some criticism directed at him, citing a lack of pace. This will be an issue across the whole back four as Germany like to break quickly and use their pace on the counter-attack to break teams down. How Demichelis handles Klose will be of particular importance as the striker is deceptively fast and caught out Upson and Terry on numerous occasions in the last 16 tie against England.

Perhaps the most important player for Argentina will be Javier Mascherano. It will be his task to stop Mesut Oezil from dictating the play for Germany. Oezil has been one of the most impressive players at the World Cup and is a shoo-in to win the FIFA best young player award – won by Podolski in 2006. All of Germany’s best play has gone through him, playing in the gap between the opposition’s defence and midfield. The victories against Australia and England showed that if you allow Oezil time and space on the ball then he will dominate the game and Germany will most likely win the match.

Mascherano will need to do a better job in defensive midfield than Gareth Barry did in England’s 4-1 defeat. Barry is not a natural defensive midfielder and too often allowed Ozil to drift away from him into positions where he could get at the defence. Mascherano is a naturally defensive player and will constantly be aware of Oezil’s position. He will not give Oezil any time on the ball and will constantly harass him whenever he receives possession.

His performances at the World Cup have shown Oezil to be an outstanding attacking midfielder, with great skill on the ball and an eye for a through ball. His duel with Mascherano will likely show whether Oezil deserves to be considered one of the best players in the world or whether he is merely a very good player who can only perform at his best when the match conditions suit him.

In a strange quirk of fate, Argentina’s last 16 tie was a repeat of the 2006 encounter at the same stage against Mexico. Argentina won on both occasions and in another strange quirk of fate their quarter final is a rematch of the quarter final in 2006, where Germany beat Argentina 4-2 on penalties. Germany would love a repeat outcome of that match but crucial for Argentina will be how they cope with Oezil, Klose and co. If they can neutralise Germany’s attacking players then they will have a great chance of going at least one stage further than in 2006.

Argentina, Germany, World Cup 2010