Bayern Munich v Inter Milan – a battle of co-efficients

Tonight sees the first ever Champions League final to be held on a Saturday. Bayern Munich, German champions and double winners take on Inter Milan, Italian champions.. and double winners. The victor in Madrid tonight will become the first club in their country to ever win a league/cup/European Cup treble.

Unexpected as it was, Bayern and Inter’s paths to Madrid saw each team eliminate more fancied opponents. Chelsea and FC Barcelona both fell by the wayside at the hands of a newly resolute Inter, while Manchester United were stunned by Bayern, as were Olympique Lyonnais, Fiorentina and Juventus amongst others.

The game is a battle of co-efficients, in a sense both on and off the pitch. Off the pitch, the game is the final shootout in a year’s long running battle between Italy and Germany for their respective top divisions’ fourth Champions League place.

I wrote a piece last year on how the UEFA Cup quarter final between Udinese and Werder Bremen was a pivotal game in the fates of both German and Italian football, with Germany closing in ever closer on Italy in the UEFA co-efficient, the prize of which is an extra place in the Champions League.

Tonight’s game is the culmination of that tussle. With Germany currently on 64.207 points and Italy narrowly behind them on 64.052, Bayern v Inter is winner takes all. Should Bayern Munich triumph, 4th place in the Bundesliga will be enough for a Champions League place next season. Italy would lose a place.

On the pitch the game can be seen as a battle of numbers, figures and codes too. Much has been made of the tactical duel that will take place tonight between Louis Van Gaal and his one time apprentice Jose Mourinho, and the argument that these are two of the most tactically astute minds in world football is certainly valid.

On the front page of today’s Gazzetta dello Sport is a mock-up picture of Mourinho wearing the mask of Helenio Herrera, another tactically marvellous Inter coach and mastermind of their last European Cup triumph 45 years ago. The Portuguese will look to emulate Herrera tonight before an almost inevitable departure to Real Madrid. With a press conference expected next week, Mourinho needn’t even fly home with his team after the game.

Louis Van Gaal is another brilliant football mind. This is the same man who guided AZ Alkmaar to the Dutch title last season, (and Ajax to the Champions League in the 90s of course) and he now stands on the brink of a unique achievement in Bayern Munich’s proud history in only his first season at the Allianz Arena.

Van Gaal has taken an unfancied Bayern side from the brink of elimination in the group stages (they needed to win at Juve to qualify, and did so by battering them) and his strict regime, emphasis on possession football and extraordinary ability to get the best out of young players (Badstuber, Muller to name but two) has seen the German giants storm to within 90 minutes of a treble.

Both coaches favour a team over stars mentality and will use their players as pawns; pieces in a battle for tactical supremacy. As such, expect to see Samuel Eto’o on the right wing and others not necessarily utilised in their best positions, rather those which suit the manager’s designs.

This post is merely a brief prelude to Europe’s biggest club game. For a superb tactical analysis of the match I advice Zonal Marking’s piece here.

So will Mourinho do another FC Porto like move, win the Champions League, throw off his medal and announce in the post match press conference his desire to leave? Or will Van Gaal show his former apprentice just who is the master?

Predictions and observations welcome.

Bayern Munich, Champions League, Europe, Inter Milan