South Africa – World Cup squad analysis (23 for 2010)

With his team currently languishing in ninetieth position in the world rankings, South Africa manager Carlos Alberto Parreira clearly has a tough task ahead of him in trying to make the host nation competitive in what looks to be a tough group.

In their opener, South Africa face a Mexico side that have reached the second round in each of their last four World Cups. They also must face Uruguay, who have the likes of former Manchester United striker Diego Forlan. Finally, on the 22^nd of June, their opposition are the inconsistent French, who have quality all over the pitch.

Parreira will also have to pick a squad having managed them just twice competitively (in this spell as manager), as he only took over in October following the dismissal of Joel Santana. Despite a commendable fourth place finish in the 2009 Confederations Cup, Santana’s frankly appalling record in international friendlies (eight defeats in his last nine matches) forced the South African Football Federation to take action. This means Parreira has to pick a World Cup squad off the back of just two games against Botswana, plus a handful of friendly matches.

As if the quality of the opposition and the lack of competitive match practice wasn’t enough of an obstacle, Parreira also has to contend with the fact that his players will have wildly differing levels of match fitness; something which should be less of a problem for the bigger teams, as all their players will be playing regularly in top leagues.

Steven Pienaar is the most obvious example of this; playing regularly for a team comfortably in the top half of the Premiership is very different to the league back home. The squad will also be without their international players for the first half of the training camp – they will arrive at different times, which can only be disruptive to Parreira’s preparations.

Parreira named a 29 man squad, which will be trimmed to 23 on the first of June. I’ll take a look at those 29 players, and make a judgement on who I think will make the cut in just under a month’s time.

Goalkeepers:

Itumeleng Khune (22, Kaiser Chiefs, 24 caps)
Shu-Aib Walters (28, Maritzburg United, on loan from Bloemfontein Celtic, uncapped)
Rowen Fernandez (32, Arminia Bielefield, 23 caps)
Moeneeb Josephs (29, Orlando Pirates, 14 caps)

One of these men will not be at the World Cup – teams as a rule take three keepers as part of the 23 man squad. Itumeleng Khune will almost certainly be one of them; at the moment he is clearly South Africa’s number one, and three good performances could spark a lot of interest from Europe. He was first choice in last year’s Confederations Cup, and during the tournament saved a penalty from David Villa. Moeneeb Josephs is likely to be first choice backup, as he has been since the return of Parreira. With him between the posts, Orlando Pirates have conceded the least goals in the Premier Soccer League, and he is very comfortable with the ball at his feet.

That means that the choice is between Rowen Fernandez and Shu-Aib Walters. The smart money here is on Fernandez – he is a much more experienced player than his rival. However, initial reports following an injury in January suggested he could be out for six months, and hasn’t played a game since. Having said that, Walters cannot even get in the first team at Bloemfontein Celtic, so if there is a chance of Fernandez being fit, one would expect Parreira to go with him.

Defenders:

Matthew Booth (33, Mamelodi Sundowns, 24 caps, 1 goal)
Siboniso Gaxa (26, Mamelodi Sundowns, 29 caps)
Innocent Mdledle (24, Mamelodi Sundowns, 5 caps)
Bongani Khumalo (23, Supersport United, 5 caps)
Tsepo Masilela (25, Maccabi Haifa, 27 caps)
Aaron Mokoena (29, Portsmouth, 99 caps, 2 goals)
Bryce Moon (24, PAOK, on loan from Panathanaikos, 15 caps, 1 goal)
Anele Ngcongca (22, Genk, 2 caps)
Siyabonga Sangweni (28, Golden Arrows, 2 caps)
Lucas Thwala (28, Orlando Pirates, 10 caps)

As a general rule, managers tend to take two players to cover for each position, meaning that eight of these ten are likely to make it into the final squad.  I’ll deal with those players who are predominantly full backs first, then look at the choices in the middle.

On the right hand side, Parreira faces a choice between Siboniso Gaxa, who has featured regularly for PSL runners up Mamelodi Sundowns, the pacey Bryce Moon, and the inexperienced Anele Ngcongca. As a former Brazil coach, you would expect the manager to opt for the more attacking option of Bryce Moon as first choice, although the quality of the opposition may mean he is forced to use someone more adept defensively. Gaxa seems the most likely to challenge Moon for a first team spot – although Ngcongca was first choice in the winter internationals, he hasn’t been playing regularly for Genk (just 17 times since joining them three seasons ago.)

Opposite him, at left back, it also looks like there is a choice of two from three. Peter Masilela will surely start on the left; he was once considered so promising that he made his international debut before signing as a professional. He’s also a first choice player at Maccabi Haifa, so plays at a higher standard than most of these players, and has featured in the Champions League.  This time last year, Lucas Thwala would have been the easy choice to provide backup – 2008/09 was a stunning season for him at Orlando Pirates. He was the player of the season both at his club and in the PSL, as his side finished runners up. However, he hasn’t achieved quite as much this season, and Innocent Mdledle has made progress for Mamelodi Sundowns since then. Still, I think that Parreira will opt for Thwala, and Mdledle will stay at home.

There are four players for the four central defensive positions, so it is merely a matter of picking who will be first choice. However, the potential fly in the ointment is Morgan Gould, of SuperSport United, who is currently injured but may make a recovery in time to make the final squad. Gould is certainly on Parreira’s radar: he has regularly featured in the recent friendly matches, and it would not be a massive surprise if he was picked in the final 23.

He won’t be replacing Aaron Mokoena, however. The Portsmouth man is captain, and has almost a century of caps to his name, so will start every game barring injury or suspension. Matthew Booth is certainly the most popular choice to start alongside amongst many fans – the shouting of his name from the stands whenever he touches the ball has often been mistaken for racist booing (Booth is the only regular white member of the squad).

However, there was some surprise when he was included in the squad – he has hardly featured under Parreira, and I would expect him to be the man replaced if Gould is called up. Booth’s advantage over his competitors (Bongani Khumalo and Siyabonga Sangweni) is his height – he stands a full six inches higher than either of those two. Of those two, Khumalo seems the more likely to be first choice, crucially offering a significant goal threat from set pieces.

Midfielders:

Surprise Moriri (30, Mamelodi Sundowns, 24 caps, 4 goals)
Franklin Cale (26, Mamelodi Sundowns, 2 caps)
Lance Davids (25, Ajax CT, 16 caps)
Kagisho Dikgacoi (25, Fulham, 30 caps, 2 goals)
Andile Jali (20, Orlando Pirates, uncapped)
Teko Modise (27, Orlando Pirates, 40 caps, 9 goals)
Reeilwe Letsholonyane (27, Kaiser Chiefs, 1 cap)
Siphiwe Tshabalala (25, Kaiser Chiefs, 40 caps, 4 goals)
Thanduyise Khuboni (23, Golden Arrows, 5 caps)
Steven Pienaar (28, Everton,  46 caps, 2 goals)
Macbeth Sibaya (32, Rubin Kazan, 52 caps)

This is arguably the area of the team with most strength in depth. As such, it will be difficult to pick players to miss out, and much will depend on the next few games. There are a few players who are guaranteed places barring injury, but other than that, Parreira faces a tough choice.

Steven Pienaar is one of those few. The Everton man has been arguably the Merseyside club’s best player this season when fit – receiving the Player of the Year award; because of him Everton didn’t feel the absence of the injured Mikel Arteta as much as expected. Another man playing in England, Kagisho Dikgacoi, should also make the cut. Despite an undistinguished debut (he was sent off in the first half for slapping Scott Parker), he has performed well in a Fulham shirt this season, his strong work ethic and tough tackling making him popular amongst the fans.

Thanduyise Khuboni also looks set to make the squad, despite having just five caps to his name. He has played every minute of the most recent friendlies, and in my mind that makes him almost a certainty for the final squad, perhaps even as a holding player for the first team. Parreira praised his form following the camp in Brazil, and also praised Teko Modise, who performed well despite a tough season at Orlando Pirates. The winger allegedly attracted interest from England and Italy in the last transfer window, and a good performance in the World Cup could put him back in the shop window.

International regular Siphiwe Tshabalala will also be there in June. There are strong rumours linking him to a move to Turkey following the World Cup, and although he denies wanting to leave Kaizer Chiefs, he will surely want to keep his options opens with a strong performance. The winger scored in the recent draw with Paraguay, and at club level regularly contributes goals.

The final place for the wingers should go to Surprise Moriri – his goalscoring record at club level is very good, and he plays predominantly on the right side of midfield. However, given the relative paucity up front for the national team, Parreira could be tempted to use him as a striker.

This means that there could be a space for an extra winger in the final squad, and the contenders for that position are Franklin Cale and Andile Jali. Neither are particularly experienced, but I would expect Cale to get the place, as he is one of the few natural left footers amongst the squad, and also has the ability to play on both sides.  However, he didn’t feature at all during the last training camp in Germany.

This leaves two places left for central midfielders, and there are three of those remaining in the provisional squad. Macbeth Sibaya has to be the favourite – he plays for Russian champions Rubin Kazan, playing 20+ games for each of the last three seasons, and is one of the most experienced members of the team. It seems relatively clear to me that Parriera will pick Lance Davids for the final midfield spot – he has featured heavily under the Brazilian coach, and offers versatility and experience both internationally and in Europe that his competitor Reeilwe Letshonaye just doesn’t.

Strikers:

Benni McCarthy (32, West Ham United, 78 caps, 32 goals)
Katlego Mphela (25, Mamelodi Sundowns, 24 caps, 9 goals)
Siyabonga Nomvete (32, Moroka Swallows, 74 caps, 16 caps)
Bernard Parker (24, FC Twente, 25 caps, 7 goals)

The theory of taking two players for each starting place suggests that these four are guaranteed their spots in the final squad. However, this should not be taken as read – both Moriri and Modise can play further forward if necessary and this striking quartet is unlikely to strike fear into opponents.

Benni McCarthy is a player of undoubted pedigree (he is South Africa’s all time leading scorer), but his form and fitness are well off his best. Since joining West Ham in January, he has featured in just five games, generally looking disinterested and not remotely resembling the player who so impressed in his first season in England.

Siyabonga Nomvete is in a similar position – he has recently returned to the squad after a three year absence, and scored in the recent friendly win over Jamaica, but will have to maintain this good form in the remaining friendly matches to get a starting spot. Bernard Parker is a solid player, but there are significant concerns about his lack of match practice, as he has only played in ten games all season under Steve McClaren at newly-crowned Dutch champions FC Twente.

Finally, there is Katlego Mphela, most famous for scoring both goals, including a thirty yard free kick in the 90^th minute, against Spain in the 2009 Confederations Cup. I would be surprised if Mphela starts – I see him as more of an impact substitute (as he proved so adeptly in that game), and would also be surprised if all of these four were named in the final squad. My pick for the man to miss out is either McCarthy or Nomvete – whoever performs worse in the final couple of friendlies.

Predicted final squad:

GK: Khune, Joephs, Fernandez
DF: Moon, Gaxa, Masilela, Thwala, Mokoena, Khumalo, Sangweni, Gould (if fit, Booth otherwise)
MF: Pienaar, Khuboni, Tshabalala, Cale, Dikgacoi, Sibaya, Davids, Modise
FW: Moriri, Parker, Mphela, Nomvete

What should Parreira’s 1st choice starting lineup be for South Africa? Tell us your thoughts below.

(photo credit – Shine 2010 on Flickr)

23 for 2010, South Africa, Squad Analysis, World Cup 2010