Chipolopolo Qualify! Zambia & Cameroon Escape Group D’s Crazy Mathematics

Cameroon 2-2 Tunisia
Zambia 2-1 Gabon

Got your thinking cap on? Good. You’re going to need it to work out the intricacies of Group D, which ended up about as complicated as a Matrix sequel, but far more entertaining. We’ll start off with the basics.

Zambia are through to the quarter finals of the African Cup of Nations for the first time since 1996. A 2-1 win over Gabon in their final group game in Benguela spelt triumph for the Chipolopolo and disaster for Gabon, as Group D turned upside down in the space of 90 minutes. Rainford Kalaba and James Chamanga were Zambia’s heroes with a goal in each half to put the Copper Bullets 2-0 up. And though Gabon pulled a late goal back through Fabrice do Marcolino, it ultimately proved in vain as Zambia held on for a famous victory.

In Lubango meanwhile, Cameroon sneaked into the quarter finals by way of a 2-2 draw against Tunisia in an entertaining game that saw the Indomitable Lions come from behind twice to secure the point they needed. Goals from Samuel Eto’o and a blistering strike from Landry N’Guemo put paid to Tunisia’s chances after first Armine Chermiti then a comedy own goal by Cameroon defender Aurelien Chedjou had put the Carthage Eagles 1-0 and 2-1 up. A win would have sent Tunisia into the quarter finals. A draw, their 3rd consecutive stalemate of the tournament, was not good enough. Tunisia go home.

Gabon were top of the group heading into the final set of matches. Zambia were bottom. With Cameroon and Tunisia sandwiched in the middle, Group D was always going to end in a convoluted manner with teams having to be separated in some arbitrary way. And so it proved. Here are the final standings:

Now, as an airhead blonde in a L’Oreal advert might say, here comes the science.

As you can see, Zambia, Cameroon and Gabon all ended on 4 points. So how was it determined that they finish in that order?

After all, Gabon were celebrating after the final whistle in their game, thinking they had done enough to go through. “We thought we were qualified,” lamented a crestfallen Daniel Cousin. And according to Sports Illustrated, some African Football Confederation officials only added to the confusion by incorrectly naming Cameroon group winners by way of their head-to-head record with Zambia.

Here are the rules. In the event that teams are level on points at the African Cup of Nations, the following criteria applies:

1. Head-to-head results
2. Head-to-head goal difference
3. Head-to-head goals scored
4. Total goal difference
5. Total goals scored
6. Fair play
7. Random drawing of lots by organising committee

in that order. Luckily in this case it only got as far as stage 3.

Zambia, Cameroon and Gabon were all level on head-to-head results (1 win, 1 defeat) and head-to-head goal difference (0). But on head-to-head goals scored, Zambia scored 4 (2 vs Cameroon, 2 vs Gabon), Cameroon 3 (3 vs Zambia, 0 vs Gabon) and Gabon 2 (1 vs Cameroon, 1 vs Zambia). Therefore, (still with me?) Zambia win the group, Cameroon come second and Gabon go out.

Bye Gabon, bye Tunisia

Tunisia’s exit at the group stages for the first time in 6 years goes down as something of a surprise. Their shortcomings were available for all to see both in failing to qualify for the World Cup and now in Angola. Not enough class upfront for that necessary ruthless streak in front of goal, not solid enough at the back to make up for the attacking frailties. Tunisia’s squad for the ACN was a young one, lacking in experience and, importantly, missing the golden boy of Tunisian football Yassine Chikhaoui. Without him they struggled, and 3 out of 3 draws tells it’s own story. Hard to beat, not quite good enough to win things.

Gabon showed a resilience that will be familiar to those who watched them in World Cup qualifying, but once again fell short when it mattered. That is not so much a criticism (hard to throw stones at a nation of just 1.5 million people that is slowly finding it’s way on the international football scene), but an observation that, while French coach Alain Giresse has worked wonders organising Gabon into a diligent, compact unit, really the Black Panthers are that and little more. Messrs Cousin and co lacked the teeth to fire the extra goal or two that would have sent Gabon through.

Cameroon & Zambia, proceed

Cameroon, despite Paul Le Guen’s worryingly strange system of deploying the leading African Cup of Nations goalscorer in history (Eto’o) anywhere but in his natural centre forward position, advance to the quarter finals. They weren’t pretty and there are definite tactical issues to be addressed. Several players also need dramatic upturns in form. But they sneak into the last 8 to face a daunting game against holders Egypt.

And as for the Chipolopolo, they emerge from Group D with immense credit after their successful exploits. Inspired by Jacob Mulenga, the Katongo brothers et al, Zambia more than held their own against Cameroon in an unwarranted 3-2 defeat caused in part by terrible goalkeeping, and Herve Renard’s men fought valiantly to see off Gabon in Benguela. “It’s a great moment for me as a captain to reach the knockout stage of the Nations Cup. We have achieved something, broken the barrier, which a lot of people thought was impossible,” said skipper Christopher Katongo. Zambia’s reward is a tough, but perhaps winnable game against Nigeria in the quarter finals. The Chipolopolo march on.

African Cup of Nations 2010 – Results

Quarter Finals:

Angola vs Ghana
Cote d’Ivoire vs Algeria
Egypt vs Cameroon
Zambia vs Nigeria

African Cup of Nations 2010, Cameroon, Gabon, Tunisia, Zambia