‘You’re (not) Fired!’ – Premier League Sack Race Slows Down

Just-Football.com’s latest contributor Jaymes Monte assesses the reasons behind the drop in managerial sackings in this season’s Premier League:

Originally, this article was intended to look at the reasons behind the complete lack of any managerial changes in the top flight of English football this season. But news emanating from Fratton Park on Tuesday 24th November confirmed Paul Hart as the first managerial casualty of the season, 101 days after the opening fixtures of the Premier League season.

However, the issue still remains: why has it taken three months in a notoriously intolerant league for us to see the first departure from the hot seat? Have chairmen and boardroom members everywhere found a new level of perception? Are fans becoming more tolerant? Are financial constraints a major factor? Or simply has no manager deserved to be shown the exit door?

Deserving to be sacked is clearly a matter of conjecture and there are many factors which must be considered before castigating a manager of any specific club. However, if you take a step out of the world of day-to-day football and look at it from a purely league table perspective I think it would be fair to say that only Liverpool, Everton and West Ham are in a position which could be deemed as well below par.

Stepping back into the world of day-to-day football provides the answers as to why none of these teams have parted company with their man at the helm. David Moyes has performed wonders at Goodison Park in recent years and is rightly forgiven for a blip in form which is largely due to a horrendous list of injuries. Gianfranco Zola is knowingly working with his hands tied behind his back in terms of finances at his disposal, and Rafael Benitez, although under increasing pressure, has a connection with the fans which to this point has seen him keep his job.

The truth is that only four, possibly five managers have had or currently have cause for concern over their employment status. They are Benitez, Paul Hart, Phil Brown and Gary Megson whilst Mark Hughes is teetering on the edge and only a couple more bad results away from the spotlight.

Feeling the pinch

Football is now firmly entwined with the global recession and this most certainly has played a part. A couple of recent high profile cases involving Kevin Keegan and Alan Curbishley have highlighted the financial implications attached to parting company with a manager. However, there must be a tipping point where the cost of sacking a manager outweighs the potential monetary value of being relegated from the Premier League. For the Portsmouth board that point came on Tuesday, yet the fact that Hart was immediately offered another job within the club suggests that they could be looking to avoid paying a severance package.

Financial troubles at Hull City became apparent in recent weeks and a change of personnel in the boardroom offered Brown a stay of execution, during which time he has turned the corner and saved his job as well as a few pennies for the club. Ironically, the very reason Benitez is under pressure could be the same reason he remains in a job. Having just missed out on the millions attached to the Champions League knockout stages can Liverpool really afford to sack a man who has recently signed a lucrative five year contract?

That just leaves the curious case of Megson and Bolton. Ever since his induction as Bolton manager Megson has struggled to win over the fans, but once it became apparent that relegation would not be an issue in the 2008/09 season he was offered a new rolling contract and went on to finish the season in 13th position.

Now that they have slipped into the relegation zone the pressure will undoubtedly increase. Bolton chairman Phil Gartside is a notoriously patient man and is not accustomed to making hasty decisions or acting on a whim and that is clearly a major factor in why Megson remains in a job despite the fans’ distaste. However, Gartside is tolerant not stupid and if results continue to be of a negative nature I have no doubt that he would not risk the clubs Premier league status. For me Megson is the most likely to be collecting his P45 next.

The other issue which must be considered is the increasing trend of football club buyouts and the supporters’ reactions to this. I think it would be fair to say that a lot of attention has been shifted toward the men who sit in the front row of the upper tier of the main stand in the last 12 months. Ongoing sagas of boardroom takeovers have inevitably deflected attention away from both managers and players, and as a result there has been considerably less venom directed toward on-field inadequacies.

Liverpool are a prime example; the fans are adamant on attaching blame to George Gillett and Tom Hicks for the team’s on-field failings. Meanwhile both Portsmouth and West Ham also have a great deal of uncertainty in their respective boardrooms and as discussed Hull saw fit to change chairman before considering ousting their manager.

It could be that the general public are becoming increasingly sympathetic toward people losing their jobs and that is subconsciously filtering down from the terraces. Or more likely is the fact that clubs simpl
y cannot afford to sack mangers as readily as they once did. Whichever it is, one thing that is clear is that Premier League managers are one of the few benefactors of the global recession.

Jaymes Monte is the latest addition to the Just-Football.com writing team. He also runs thebettingblog.co.uk

Bolton Wanderers, Coaching, Everton, Football and Finance, Hull City, Liverpool, Portsmouth, West Ham United