Can Bosnia & Slovenia Upset FIFA’s Applecart?

When FIFA announced back in September that they were going to seed the UEFA European playoffs for World Cup 2010 qualification, they instantly drew the ire of countless people collectively crying ‘FIX!’ Given the announcement came a matter of weeks before the end of the qualification process at a time when several of the bigger, more financially lucrative nations such as Portugal and France found themselves in perilous positions, FIFA had little comeback. A whimper here and there about how the 2006 World Cup qualification playoffs were also seeded and that was about it. Compared to the angry fire-breathing from the likes of Giovanni Trapattoni, FIFA’s meek response on the subject merely crystallised the pervading sense that this was a scrappy, last-ditch attempt by Sepp Blatter and co to protect their investment.

A little further down the line and we know exactly what the playoff draw conjured up. Nations like Bosnia-Herzegovina, Europe’s fourth highest scoring team despite being thrown in with relentless European champions Spain, and Ireland, unbeaten in qualification including two games against the world champions, were deemed statistically inferior to the Russias and Frances of this world and forced to endure yet another round of numerical dumbing down. No open draw said FIFA – minnows versus big guns instead.

That meant Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Portugal, Ireland vs France, Slovenia vs Russia and Ukraine vs Greece.

If we are to assume that, based on first leg outcomes, Ireland are all but out and the lines between Greece and Ukraine are too blurred to establish definable minnows and giants, this leaves Slovenia and Bosnia-Herzegovina as the sympathetic neutral’s last two chances to overcome the administrative odds and stick FIFA’s seeding system right up Sepp Blatter’s as…phalt-laden driveway.

The burning question then is – can Bosnia-Herzegovina and Slovenia defy the odds?

The answer, I would say, is quite straightforward. Yes. Both are in encouraging if not ideal positions and both will now feel that having lived with their more illustrious opponents in the first leg, they can move in for the kill in round two.

Bosnia vs Portugal

Standing just one game away from the nation’s first ever World Cup since gaining independence from Yugoslavia in 1992, Bosnia are certainly not lacking motivation. In fact judging by their coach Miroslav Blazevic’s comments the players are chomping at the bit. “Normally in my long career I have had to inject tension; this is the first time I have had to calm things down,” said the outspoken coach who led Croatia to third place at World Cup ‘98. “We will launch an onslaught like hungry wolves from the start.” Supporters are also doing their part to crank up the tension – scores of Bosnian fans greeted the Portuguese delegation with a none too welcoming reception at the airport in Sarajevo, prompting members of the Portuguese football federation to consider a complaint to FIFA.

Bruno Alves’ effort settled matters in a 1-0 win for Carlos Queiroz’s side in Lisbon at the weekend, but Bosnia were desperately unlucky not to come away with an away goal having more than held their own over the course of the match. Blazevic’s side also hit the woodwork three times. Frustrating, but also strangely encouraging. If the players can put in a repeat performance surely they can’t be as unlucky a second time around.

Getting to within one game from South Africa has been no fluke for Bosnia. Blazevic has a very gifted collection of players at his disposal. Edin Dzeko has been prolific for the last year and a half upfront for both country and his club, German champions VfL Wolfsburg, and the striker is supported by the likes of Miralem Pjanic, Zvjezdan Misimovic, Vedad Ibisevic and Elvir Rahimic. Unfortunately for Bosnia however Rahimic, Emir Spahic and Samir Muratovic are all injured which is a big blow to the team’s midfield and defence.

Portugal of course will be without main man Cristiano Ronaldo. However, Queiroz has ample talent at his disposal. Nani seems to find national team duties a welcome respite from the pressures of club and thrived in attacking positions last Saturday, while Deco is in form for club and country at the moment and should shake off a muscle strain to start. One gets the feeling that an away goal for Portugal might be enough to kill off Bosnia here. One away goal would require the home side to score three which, unless Dzeko and Ibisevic have their shooting boots on, would appear unlikely. Tough one to call but Bosnia’s chance is now and they will be desperate to grab it.

Slovenia vs Russia

For some reason I can’t help shake the feeling that Slovenia might pull off an upset here. Russia were comfortably dominant for large spells of the home leg in Moscow, easing into a 2-0 lead before
falling asleep and allowing Slovenia Nejc Pecnik an away goal late on. That could prove vital to the outcome of this tie, with Slovenia now having something to aim for. 2-0 down would have been nigh on insurmountable. Now though, a 1-0 win sends them to South Africa.

As groups go Slovenia’s was a pretty navigable one really. Czech Republic and Poland aren’t what they once were, San Marino are beyond the pale and Northern Ireland are Northern Ireland. The paucity of opposition allowed coach Matjaz Kek to steer his men into the playoffs and the step up in class when facing Russia seemed to affect the team in the first half. Andrey Arshavin, Diniyar Bilyaletdinov and Yuri Zhirkov in particular posed Slovenia a constant threat, and Bilyaletdinov took his two goals superbly. If CSKA Moscow star Alan Dzagoev shakes off an injury as is looking likely, that quartet definitely have the ability to do damage to the hosts in Maribor.

Russia boss Guus Hiddink believes the away goal “gives Slovenia an advantage” and given that the hosts only conceded one goal at home during qualifying he could be right. Slovenia have a track record when it comes to playoffs having won two of their last three in getting to Euro 2000 and the 2002 World Cup. I would question whether they have the necessary firepower to pose Russia real problems though. Apart from set pieces Kek’s men scarcely proved troublesome in attacking areas in Moscow and though they managed 18 goals in qualifying, 8 of them came against San Marino leaving just 10 in the other 8 games. Hardly teeming with goals. Kek will again look to FC Koln’s Milivoje Novakovic for goals.

One gets the feeling that, were it to happen, a Bosnia/Slovenia double-whammy would really get up FIFA’s nose tonight. Ireland have a near impossible task given France’s home record but if they too could pull off an upset you can imagine Sepp Blatter’s face turning redder than the tape used to attempt to re-balance the odds in the bigger nations’ favour. That would be a picture.

Bosnia-Herzegovina, FIFA, Ireland, Portugal, Russia, Slovenia, World Cup 2010