Udinese vs Werder Bremen – UEFA Cup Quarter Final – Why The Fate Of Italian Football Rests In Udinese Hands

When Udinese take on Werder Bremen in the second leg of their UEFA Cup quarter final this week there will be more at stake for them than simply passage to the last four.

As the last remaining Italian club in European competition this season, the team nicknamed the Zebras also go into Thursday’s game with the very future of Italian football resting on their black and white striped shoulders.

Not only because they represent the nation’s sole hope of continental silverware, although that is clearly a factor. Italian teams have had a bad time of it in Europe this season. Most of the eight clubs involved in Europe have not performed in 2008/2009 to the levels their illustrious reputations have laid out for them over history, and whether they have crashed out with heads held high (Juventus, AS Roma) or shuffled off with tails between legs (AC and Inter Milan) one common theme applies – they have all gone home early.

Except for Udinese. Udinese, whose highest ever European honour remains the 1999-2000 Intertoto Cup. The Bianconeri go into Thursday’s game at the Stadio Friuli with the daunting task of overturning a 3-1 deficit from the first leg, and will carry both their own personal dreams of success and the immediate future of Italian football in their hands. The reason why? Because the Zebrette are the only Italian side who can now stop Germany potentially leapfrogging Italy in the UEFA rankings going into next season.

Italy at present hold only a narrow lead over Germany in the UEFA rankings. With two German teams (including opponents Werder Bremen) still involved in Europe, Udinese’s progress in the UEFA Cup could represent Italy’s last chance of holding off Germany’s push to overtake them and officially be crowned the third best league in Europe. The consequences of which could ultimately cost Serie A an extra place in the Champions League. It would represent another bitter blow to the Italian top-flight, which has already seen its glamour and status erode to fall behind that of the top divisions in England and Spain.

At this point you might be wondering who exactly decides which league is better than which and how. Well, it is UEFA who decides. Each year football’s administrative controlling body UEFA compiles a list of the highest ranked teams and countries in Europe, calculated by a points scoring method called the ‘UEFA Coefficient.’

The rankings are worked out by judging each club’s performance in European competition over a five year period. The further in Europe a team goes, the more points they earn that year for both themselves and the country they represent.

Italy has long been one of the top ranking countries in Europe according to the coefficient, hence four Champions League places. But with performances by Italian teams failing to hit the heights of glory days past, Italy has seen its UEFA coefficient ranking slip.

Going into the Werder Bremen v Udinese game, Italy’s UEFA ranking for 2009 stands at 62.785, third in Europe. Germany are fourth with 55.695. Points are awarded by UEFA for wins, qualification past the Champions League group stages and progression past each round of both UEFA Cup and Champions League, starting from the preliminary rounds.

The 7 point coefficient gap Italy currently holds is comfortable enough to see them ranked ahead of Germany, for now. However, as the coefficient is evaluated over five years, from next season 2004/2005 will no longer count. That was a season in which AC Milan made it all the way to the Champions League final. Though they eventually lost to Liverpool, their exploits that year were good enough to contribute to Italy’s coefficient total of 14.000 to Germany’s 10.571 – a difference of nearly 4 points. With that season soon to count for nothing in coefficient terms, the gap between Italy and Germany becomes 3 points (48.785 vs 45.124). Getting closer.

Now consider the rest of this season. For qualification past each knockout round in the UEFA Cup, UEFA award 1 point. This means that, with a 3 point lead for Italy, if Udinese cannot stop Bremen getting past them and into the semi-finals, Germany gain one point. If Hamburg also see off Manchester City in the other quarter final as expected, Germany will be awarded another point. It would also set up an
all-German semi-final and simultaneously guarantee a German side in the 2009 UEFA Cup final – meaning one more point for Germany in the coefficient.

Should either Hamburg or Werder Bremen consequently go on to win the UEFA Cup therefore, Germany’s 4 extra points would see them leapfrog Italy and become the third highest ranked country in Europe. With that would come the chance of an extra Champions League place, at Serie A’s expense.

Now, before all you fans of German football get too excited, I should add that, were all this to come to pass it would only see Germany overtake Italy in the UEFA rankings heading into next season. 2009/2010 would then become a straight battle between the two nations to see who can outlast who in European competition, with Germany having a handsome headstart. Whichever nation’s clubs go furthest would win the extra Champions League slot.

To put it all on Udinese therefore is perhaps slightly mischievous given the ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ that would remain even if Pasquale Marino’s men do somehow eliminate Werder Bremen. But, with a win, Udinese have the chance to kill all this speculation dead and secure the Azzurri nation’s position as Europe’s third best league for another few years. Victory would not only be remarkable but also entirely welcome for Italy then, as it would massively increase their chances of keeping four Champions League spots.

So if you notice every Italian man, woman and child getting behind the Zebras on Thursday night, particularly those who usually throw their weight behind the likes of Roma, AC Milan and Juventus, you’ll know why.

Europe, German Football, Germany, Italy, Udinese, UEFA Cup, Werder Bremen