How January 2009 Will Define The Entire Premier League Season

With twenty games already played the 2008/2009 English Premier League season is now just over the halfway point. Despite over 50% of the campaign elapsing however it has barely even begun. As Paul Wilson rightly pointed out in an article over at the Guardian, ‘nobody is setting a title-winning pace at the top, nobody is looking a relegation certainty at the bottom. The season so far has been one of fits and starts.’

A glance at the league table just a few days shy of the end of 2008 readily supports this point of view. Stoke City are in the relegation zone, yet three points in the next round of fixtures could see them move comfortably up to 12th – 11th if they possessed a better goal difference. The pessimist would say that West Bromwich Albion are bottom. The optimist would point out that they are also merely five points from mid-table safety.

Richard Dunne’s post-match comment that he wanted to win three points at Blackburn Rovers ‘to push us (Manchester City – 13th) towards the top three’ could be interpreted as either a careless slip of the tongue or a telling, unintended insight into his and his club’s rather delusional sense of perspective. But actually, this season, he has a semblance of a point. The top four clubs have also coughed and spluttered their way through the campaign this year, to the point where an Everton side confined to the lower regions of the table a few months ago have now climbed to within three points of third. Liverpool may be starting to accelerate away from the pack but they are doing so with a laboured shift of gears.

With matters at both the top and bottom of the table looking so tight this season, January 2009 looks set to go down as the defining month in the 2008/2009 Premier League season. Traditionally, the January transfer window plays little more than an auxiliary role in defining the outcome of titles and relegations.

Often reluctant to overhaul their squad with an abundance of changes midway through the campaign, Premier League managers have tended to simply tweak things at this time of year – an addition to the squad here, a replacement for an out-of-form player there, the machine left to march on without major surgery. Of the top four from last season for example only Chelsea broke the £10 million pound barrier, and only four Premiership clubs brought in more than five players (Wigan, Fulham, Derby and Portsmouth).

This January however, the transfers that are made could turn out to be season-defining. Not only because many clubs are in desperate need of new blood if they are to achieve their ambitions; like Arsenal for example, like Aston Villa, like Tottenham, like Portsmouth, like Manchester City. But also because, of the likely transfers that will take place in January, a high proportion look set to involve clubs pinching from their own Premier League compatriots. The tremors of which will define the entire season.
Aston Villa are perhaps the ideal side with which to illustrate the point. Villa are currently 5th in the table and genuine contenders for that elusive fourth Champions League spot. In order to achieve this however they need a stronger squad. Martin O’Neill’s first eleven has certainly proved itself capable of rivalling Arsenal, but as anyone who witnessed Hamburg’s humbling of Villa’s reserves in the recent 3-1 UEFA Cup win in Germany will have realised, their squad is currently just short of being able to sustain a real push for that top 4.

Everton found this out to their peril last season. Their first team was arguably good enough to come fourth – and indeed they battled with Liverpool almost all the way. Once Tim Cahill injured himself for a prolonged period however, their challenge faded to black. Villa are in a similar predicament. Injury to Ashley Young, my Player of the Season so far, or Gabby Agbonlahor without adequate replacement would give them too big a mountain to climb to finish above an Arsenal side who still have important players to return from injury.

To boost their chances Villa perhaps need Michael Owen, for example, or Jermain Defoe. The upshot of possessing a proven goalscorer like the Portsmouth hitman would doubtless propel them further towards O’Neill’s ultimate goal. But without more firepower their over-reliance on the legs of Young and Agbonlahor could end up costing them.

The knock-on effects of clubs losing their stars to other Premier League rivals will be a key factor in shaping this season’s outcome. If Portsmouth lose Defoe, as well as Lassana Diarra and the multitude of other stars rumoured to be departing in the January sales at cash-strapped Fratton Park, then Tony Adams will face a real battle to even keep the club in the league. Sylvin Distain is thought to be a target for Arsenal. Should he leave for the Emirates (and he would be a good signing for the Gunners), it not only dangerously depletes Portsmouth but also significantly aids Arsenal in their quest to ward off the likes of Villa and Everton, hanging uncomfortably aroun
d them like unwanted guests at a Christmas party.

Another example. Say Roque Santa Cruz ups sticks and moves to Manchester City. The narrow four point gap separating them from Blackburn Rovers is then far likelier to transform into more of a chasm. City get stronger, Blackburn are directly weakened and, with the league table as cramped as it currently is, the points swing caused by Santa Cruz’s goals dramatically alter both sides’ seasons. Potential repercussions are clear.

Fresh-faced Fulham are currently ninth, within a six-point swing of both Europe and the bottom three. Continuation of their impressive form plus a few players in January could take them into next season’s UEFA Cup (sorry, Europa League). Then again, they might lose Jimmy Bullard to Spurs, Brede Hangeland to Arsenal and Clint Dempsey to Everton in January and get sucked into a relegation dogfight.

The same goes for Wigan Athletic, 7th and wonderful at times this year despite their unfashionable image. Europe? Maybe. But the league is so tight that if Liverpool do snatch Emile Heskey, if Juande Ramos does lure Luis Antonio Valencia to Madrid and if Amr Zaki is dashed to, well, any of the numerous interested parties that can afford him, then Steve Bruce’s side could just as easily become also-rans. Tottenham too. Goodness knows how their season will turn out, but a lot will depend on which striker Harry Redknapp manages to successfully tap-up in January and how quickly said striker starts scoring goals.

That is how close it is in the Premiership this season. Everything is presently so taut, so congested, with so many teams desperately scrambling for the same air, that all major eventualities of this Premier League season could end up hinging around answers to the most straightforward of questions: ‘Which teams managed to steal which others’ best players in January and who?’

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