The UEFA Champions League - Plus Ça Change...

The 2008/2009 Champions League third qualifying round draw has now been made, with winners of the sixteen ties set to advance through to the first round proper of the 2008/2009 Champions League. The draw is as follows:

Anorthosis Famagusta/Rapid Vienna v Olympiakos
Vitoria Guimaraes v IFK Gothenburg/Basel
Shakhtar Donetsk v Domzale/Dinamo Zagreb
Schalke 04 v Atletico Madrid
Aalborg/Modrica v Rangers/Kaunas
Barcelona v Beitar Jerusalem/Wisla Krakow
Levski Sofia v Anderlecht/BATE
Standard Liege v Liverpool
Inter Baku/Partizan v Fenerbahce/MTK Budapest
FC Twente v Arsenal
Spartak Moscow v Drogheda United/Dynamo Kiev
Juventus v Tampere United/Artmedia Petrzalka
SK Brann/Ventspils v Marseille
Fiorentina v Slavia Prague
Galatasaray v Steaua Bucharest
Panathinaikos/Dinamo Tbilisi v Sheriff Tiraspol/Sparta Prague

These ties will be played on the 12th/13th August 2008, with the second legs taking place on the 26th/27th August 2008. Of the teams listed above, twelve of them found themselves at this exact same stage last year (38%), while nine of the sixteen teams that qualified automatically for the group stage last season have done so again in 2008/2009 (56%).

The twelve teams that participated in the last 32 of the Champions League in the previous campaign are highlighted in bold above. Taking into account the draw and, where applicable, the probability of them making it past the second leg of their Second Round qualifying tie, what chance is there that all twelve make it into the group stages for a second season running?

Currently, all the teams highlighted that are in second round qualifying go into the second leg of their respective clashes holding a lead. Assuming that Rangers, Fenerbahce and Dynamo Kiev are strong enough to see off their opposition, the chances of all twelve sides making it to the group stages of the competition seem quite reasonable wouldn´t you say? Can you really see Steve McClaren`s FC Twente eliminating Arsenal? Is Standard Liege`s elimination anything other than a formality when faced with a Liverpool side boasting over £45 million worth of talent upfront alone? Surely Barcelona will not fail against either Beitar Jerusalem or Wisla Krakow, with or without Lionel Messi?

Of course it stands to reason the likes of Fiorentina, Galatasaray and Spartak Moscow will prove stern opposition to Slavia Prague, Steaua Bucharest and Dynamo Kiev. But these three ties aside, the only match that seems genuinely tough to call sees last season`s quarter finalists Schalke 04 up against Spain`s Atletico Madrid. If all twelve teams do therefore qualify for the group stage, the Champions League 2008/2009 will be comprised of 21 of the 32 teams that were there last year, or 66%. That is quite a figure. Even if Fiorentina, Galatasaray, Spartak and Atletico Madrid do eliminate their third qualifying round opponents, as long as the other eight teams mentioned make it through as the bookmakers are heavily tipping them to, then the competition will contain over 53% of the teams it did last year.

The competition`s seeding system has a lot to do with this. Having a seeded qualifying round makes it all too easy for the likes of Liverpool to finish fourth in their domestic competition knowing full well that, though they will need to navigate a qualifier to make the lucrative group stages the next year, thanks to the way the draw is seeded progress is tantamount to a formality. Especially when handed the added luxury of playing the second leg at home.

When Michel Platini was running for UEFA President he made public many bold statements and grand plans that he claimed would change the face of European football for the better. One such plan he mentioned was the advocating of a play-off system, whose introduction would make passage to the Champions League group stage far harder for clubs from Europe`s bigger leagues. The idea was to stage a mini-competition whereby the lowest-ranked qualifiers from England, Spain and Italy would playoff against qualifiers from countries such as Germany and France, whose leagues offer only three Champions League berths as opposed to four. The ambition of such a scheme would be to free up more places in the competition for clubs from Europe`s smaller leagues thus diversifying the tournament somewhat.

"We have to find the right balance," Platini said. "My problem is the two English, Spanish and Italian teams in the final qualifying round do not play against each other, they play against smaller teams."

Although any such plans cannot be enforced until the 2009/2010 season it will be intriguing to see if the UEFA President presses ahead with this proposal. It would certainly make the competition more varied, but then again would that necessarily be a good thing? Or is the tournament as it is now, comprised potentially of 2/3rds the same participants as last year, in no need of tweaking?